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The protracted trade dispute orchestrated by the Trump administration has effectively extinguished any nascent hopes for a U.S.-led resurgence in the global luxury goods market. Escalating tariff barriers pose a significant threat, potentially prolonging the decelerating demand for prestige items such as handbags and luxury timepieces. The United States and China, historically pivotal drivers of the global luxury sector, are now embroiled in a tit-for-tat tariff war, eroding consumer confidence in both economic powerhouses.

Consequently, analysts are aggressively recalibrating growth forecasts for the luxury sector through 2025. Bernstein Research recently revised its revenue projections, forecasting a contraction of 2% for the luxury market in 2025, a stark contrast to previous estimates of a 5% expansion. This downward revision is predicated on heightened economic uncertainty and the escalating risk of a global recession precipitated by protectionist tariffs. “Our base case now is that any potential rebound in the luxury sector is unlikely to materialize before 2026,” noted a senior investment banker specializing in the luxury goods space, speaking to the Financial Times.

In late March, Bernard Arnault, Chairman and CEO of LVMH, journeyed to Washington to engage in discussions regarding tariffs with President Trump, a long-standing acquaintance. Arnault had previously attended Trump’s inauguration in January, subsequently praising an “optimistic breeze” sweeping across the United States. At that juncture, Arnault indicated that LVMH was contemplating expanding its manufacturing footprint within the U.S.

Barclays anticipates a 1% decline in LVMH’s fashion and leather goods division revenue – a key indicator of the overall health of the luxury market – for the first quarter. Overall company revenue is projected to remain flat year-over-year. Following a period of unprecedented post-pandemic growth, fueled by pent-up consumer demand for luxury items like designer handbags and premium spirits, the luxury sector has entered a period of retrenchment, characterized by constrained spending among the middle class and a sluggish recovery in the Chinese economy. This deceleration is now further exacerbated by the ongoing trade war.

China, a critical market for luxury goods globally, has been disproportionately targeted by the Trump administration’s tariffs. Tariffs imposed on Chinese goods since the commencement of his second term have reached 145%. In retaliation, China has levied tariffs of 125% on U.S. products.

The majority of luxury goods are manufactured in France and Italy, while luxury timepieces are predominantly produced in Switzerland. The U.S. currently imposes a 10% tariff on goods from all three nations, following a 90-day reprieve from higher rates. The prevailing tariff level is generally considered manageable for luxury conglomerates, due to the inherent brand equity within the sector, enabling firms to absorb tariff impacts through strategic price adjustments.

However, the luxury goods market is intrinsically linked to consumer sentiment. The primary impact of tariffs is therefore mediated through their effect on consumer psychology. The pronounced market sell-off observed in global equity markets is anticipated to curtail spending among affluent consumers, as their asset values decline in tandem with equity prices. “Looking at what is happening in the stock market, we can anticipate the state of business in our boutiques,” stated Bruno Pavlosky, Chanel’s President of Fashion, in an interview with the Financial Times.

In a research note, HSBC Managing Director Erwan Rambourg characterized the risk to the luxury market as a confluence of factors: declining investor wealth, constrained consumer spending in the U.S., and an overall erosion of consumer confidence. “We foresee fewer positive catalysts emanating from the luxury sector this year,” Rambourg wrote. HSBC now projects a 5% contraction in global luxury revenue for the current year, a downward revision from its previous forecast of flat growth compared to 2024.

Conversely, Hermès, the purveyor of Birkin handbags, is projected to outperform the broader luxury market in terms of growth. Barclays forecasts an 8% revenue increase for Hermès in the first quarter of 2025, compared to the same period last year. Meanwhile, challenges at Gucci, Kering’s flagship brand, have rendered the conglomerate particularly vulnerable to any potential downturn in the sector. Barclays anticipates a 25% decline in Gucci’s revenue for the first quarter. Bernstein suggests that Kering will face difficulties in achieving its revenue and operating profit targets for the year.

chiến tranh thương mại # đồ hiệu # hàng hiệu # Ngành hàng xa xỉ thế giới # Vneconomy # 16:30 14/04/2025 # Điệp Vũ

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Source: VNECONOMY
This article has been adapted from its original source.